Due to the sheer amount of data that is available for analysis on Social Explorer, this post will focus on changes in the Lower East side between 1920 and 2015. Factors taken into account that are presumed to have had some impact on the success of Russ & Daughters are: total population, white population, and income. Much of the contextual historical information used is based on the “Our History, Sliced Thin” chapter of Mark Russ Federman’s book Russ & Daughters: Reflections and Recipes from the House That Herring Built.
In 1914, Russ & Daughters, a Jewish appetizing store, was opened by Joel Russ on 187 Orchard Street in the Lower East Side. In 1923, the store was moved around the corner to a larger location on 179 East Houston Street, which is indicated in the following image.
At the time, the neighborhood dominated by a working-class immigrant population that was crowded into squalid tenements. There were many ethnic groupings in the neighborhood, including a large Eastern European Jewish population, which numbered about 400,00 at its peak in 1920. However, shortly thereafter there was an exodus of the mostly Jewish and Italian immigrants of the neighborhood, which included Joel Russ and his family, to newly constructed buildings and homes in the outer boroughs and suburbs. This “white flight” continued for decades. After World War II, the Lower East Side saw an influx of African Americans and Puerto Ricans, resulting in it becoming New York City’s first racially integrated neighborhood. But by around 1960, the influence of the Jewish and Eastern European groups declined as many of these residents had left the area, while other ethnic groups had coalesced into separate neighborhoods, such as Little Italy. This dramatic demographic shift is evident in the following image.
Although there is no information on racial makeup of the census tracts in and around Russ & Daughters in the 1920 map, it is clear that the the white population of the Lower East Side declined fairly dramatically from 1920 to 1960. The Lower East Side then experienced a period of “persistent poverty, crime, drugs, and abandoned housing” during which the Russ family struggled to keep the store open. This continued until the 1980s, when the Lower East Side stabilized.
The above image compares average family income in 1970, when the Lower East Side was riddled by poverty and crime, and 1990, when the neighborhood was attracting “students, artists and adventurous member of the middle-class” and immigrants hailing from South Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. Clearly, the average family income in the Lower East Side increased significantly during this time. For instance, in census tract 30.01, where Russ & Daughters is located, average family income increased from $5,374 to $21,184. Inflation cannot account for this difference – $5,374 in 1970 is equivalent to $10,619 in 1989, which means that average family income doubled, even after adjusting for inflation. Similar changes occur in the other census tracts of the neighborhood, as shown in the following table. This significantly helped Russ & Daughters’ sales and allowed the Russ family to raise prices despite the decline of the white population (and presumably the Jewish population) in the area. The latter is evident in the following image, in which the percentage of the white population decreased significantly in the Lower East Side – in census tract 30.01, it decreased from 78.83% to 45.45%.
The growth of average family income increased steadily throughout the 1990s and the percentage of white people bottomed out. However, in the early 2000s, the gentrification of the East Village spread to the Lower East Side, making it “one of the trendiest neighborhoods in Manhattan.” This is evident in the increase in the percentage of white people and in the immense difference in household income between 2000 and 2015.
The above image shows the growth in the percentage of the white population between 2000 and 2015. In census tract 30.01, it increased from 43.88% in 2000 to 61.39% in 2015. This also relates to the significant growth in average family income in the area between 2000 and 2015, which is shown below. In census tract 30.01, median household income increased from $42,550 in 2000 to $62,199 in 2015.
On a final note, we will consider the overall trends between 1920 and 2015. One should note, for instance, the significant overall population decline in the neighborhood between 1920 and 2015.
In this image, each dot represents 25 people. Clearly, in 1920, the population density of the Lower East Side and lower Manhattan in general was far greater than that of today. Although the total population of the Lower East Side in 1920 is not available, it is known that Manhattan had a population of 2,284,103 in 1920 while in 2015 its population was 1,629,507.
Moreover, the white population (there was no Jewish or Eastern European category in the census data of 1920, so I am using the white population as a metric for the Jewish population instead) has also declined significantly in the area since 1920. 
In this image, each dot represents 10 white people. Judging by the image, there has been a massive decline in the white population, which probably also means a significant decline in the Jewish population, of the area from 1920 to 2015. This is also evident in the data: not only has the total population of Manhattan declined from 2,284,103 in 1920 to 1,629,507 in 2015, but the percentage of white people has declined from 94.96% to 56.43%.
So what does this mean for Russ & Daughters? Does a decline in the total and white population in the area mean that it is less successful today than it was in 1920? No. Whereas in 1920 the customer base of Russ & Daughters was almost entirely made up of local working-class Jews, today it is made up of a cosmopolitan national customer base that has proved to be unwaveringly loyal – thousands of people come back year after year from all over for the store’s delicious schmaltz herring and smoked salmon. Plus, it helps that the average family income in the area and the city as a whole has increased significantly. This has enabled the store to sell more expensive products, like caviar, and to increase the prices of its best-selling products – smoked salmon (the most popular item), for instance, now sells for $42 a pound, which means that profit margins are much greater. Based on my interview and the aforementioned data, I can conclude that, despite vast (seemingly unfavorable) demographic changes, today Russ & Daughters has a larger, more diverse and more affluent customer base than it has had in the past, which translates to more success. In fact, thanks to the extraordinary success of the original appetizing store, the current owners of Russ & Daughters have recently been able to open a Russ & Daughters Cafe and a Russ & Daughters Restaurant – both of which are also flourishing.
Here in New York City, there is currently an enormous documented decline in the number of small independently-owned storefront businesses. Fortunately, Russ & Daughters is bucking that trend thanks to its devoted national clientele.
