Rosie’s script (presenting opening slides):
Our focus today is storm surge and the importance of an immediate response plan in New York City. Our goal is to inform each of you on three components of environmental catastrophes, which include: Planning, Response, and Recovery. In order to understand the importance of planning, response, and recovery, we need to first understand what storm surge is. This will lead us into a better understanding of the effects of storm surge in New York City as well as the future of storm surge in New York City. Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tide. The height of the storm surge is driven by many variables, such as the strength and size of the storm, as well as how quickly and the direction in which the storm moves. Here we have a clear picture of what storm surge looks like. The water starts to rise above the mean water level and quickly starts to flood the shore causing damage to any trees and homes in the area. The more waves and the higher they get, the more damage is caused. Climate change makes large energetic storms more likely, and large energetic storms create storm surge. This first chart shows how temperatures have risen over the years due to human activity. The solid light blue line shows measured temperature. The dark blue dotted line is the model for natural forces alone (sunlight and volcanic eruptions), whereas the dotted red line shows the model for natural AND man-made forces. You can see that the line including man-made forces such as greenhouse gases better matches the rising temperatures. These temperature rises increase sea-surface temperatures, as shown in the second chart. Sea surface temperatures very slightly year to year, but since 1994 they have been far higher than the average. Together this warm air and warm water create the right conditions for storms to occur. So, in this third chart we see that because of these conditions (in addition to rising sea levels and high winds) the number of storms in the North Atlantic has been on the rise since the mid-1990s. There is a steady rise into the 2000s and as these conditions continue storms are going to increase drastically in our future. If this is not a clear reason to finally start planning, then Hurricane Sandy definitely was. This image shows the actual flooding that occurred due to the hurricane. New York City and the coasts were heavily impacted. Homes were lost and transportation was inhibited. The red in this second image shows the flooding during Sandy in relation to the rail systems most at risk of being damaged during the flood. The damages are even more obvious in real life images.
Emily’s Script:
Unfortunately, I have first-hand experience with the devastation that storm surge can cause, because my home in Seaford, Long Island flooded during Hurricane Sandy. Evacuation in our area was only optional, and we never expected the storm surge to reach our house since we lived about three miles from the water and didn’t even lose power during Hurricane Irene. We didn’t evacuate and only did minor preparations to the house, like putting sandbags outside our garage door. I asked my dad what the recovery process was like when the house did flood, and this is what he had to say: [VIDEO]
Those are all pictures from my old home. I’m sure you saw some things you recognize, maybe even things you have yourself. My family was safe, but so many pieces of our lives were lost. This leaves the question of what can be done to prevent such destruction to people’s homes in the future. Our insurance company told my family that if we wanted to rebuild our house, we would need to raise it six feet off the ground in order to qualify for flood insurance with less than a $30,000 deductible. While raising a house above the designated flood plane would keep the water out, it comes with a hefty price tag. For my family to raise our home, it would have cost us $90,000, and our home was only one story. After losing $60,000 worth of property, my parents couldn’t afford to pay even more money to raise our ruined house, and they chose to relocate our family farther away from the water to Levittown, Long Island. Therefore, even though raising a house is an effective way to prevent damage from storm surge in the future, it is not a monetarily feasible process for the average family. This presents a serious problem to people living in areas already affected by storm surge, and leaves a lot of uncertainty as to the housing situation on the south shore of Long Island and other areas affected by Hurricane Sandy’s surge.
Kiran’s script:
This is a graph displaying projected temperatures and number of hurricanes in the next few decades. These results were generated from three different climate models- the MDR (main development region), global, and full spatial models.
Looking at the graph as a whole, we can see that with just a 2 degree celsius increase in global temperature, future generations can expect to experience up to 5 or 6 hurricanes in less than a period of 10 years- Sandy itself was not even a hurricane but it still caused plenty of damage.
It is agreed that the Department of Transportation (DOT) and government collaborate to prepare a better immediate response plan. According to the DOT, the only response to future storms is to amend our evacuation plans. As Kat will explain further, it is important that the government give the DOT the authority to go ahead with such plans. While it is important that resources be allocated towards long-term recovery efforts, it is just as important that resources also be used towards keeping residents out of harm’s way. Certain long-term options, such as raising houses, is not feasible, from a financial and practical viewpoint, as seen with Emily’s situation. And, with the possibility of hurricanes occurring even annually, people may find themselves without shelter and supplies by the time the next catastrophe hits.
Rebecca’s Part:
We spoke with Deputy Commissioner Leon Heyward, Sharita Hunter, Keith Howard, and Nelson Castillo at the DOT about their response and plans for natural disasters in NYC. Obviously depending on the event, their plans are different, but among all of these the DOT is extremely important because it covers a wide range of operations and has many different divisions. So now we’re going to talk about their experience with Sandy and what they did, before, during, and after the event. According to them, plans on this level are not feasible because storms are unpredictable and unique, and almost all action is decided upon on the spot. About a week prior to the storm they got in contact with the national weather service and other government agencies to begin planning and setting these plans in motion, which included sending it through the ranks until it made a full circle. They then tied down anything that could fly, such as securing signage and taking down any unnecessary signs, and set any important material, equipment and personnel in accessible locations, such as in the area around CitiField so they could get to them when the catastrophe hits. After this initial preparation, the only thing we can do is wait out the storm. After the storm hits, there is a 72 hour time to assess order of priority and take care of the most dire situations. It’s still a work in progress and will take several years to complete. For example, the DOT is working now to fix roads, remove debris, fix salt water damage, and work collaboratively with other agencies like the FDNY and Dept of Sanitation. The DOT stressed that minor things like missing traffic signs, etc. are of a lower importance that structural issues and that people must be willing to let these things slide for a little while. In order to deal with storms of this magnitude, individuals must be willing to prepare for it to the best of our abilities and be flexible and willing to change up plans at a moment’s notice. On a short term and immediate scale, individuals must be prepared to evacuate and sustain some kind of damage or property loss, but the focus should be on lessening the impact that has on their lives. Ways that this could be implemented beforehand is reconfiguring electrical outlets so that they sit higher on the wall and thus have a lower chance of being damaged by rising water levels.
Kat’s Script:
According to the people we spoke to at the DOT, Sandy was a storm the scale of which they had never seen before. Given this and given anyone’s inability to plan completely for any kind of disaster before it strikes, the DOT officials think their pre-storm planning, immediate response, and ongoing recovery have been very efficient. They pride themselves on how good they’ve been at communicating with each other, within the department, as well as with other agencies, such as the Department of Sanitation and FDNY, at each stage of the game and at adopting their strategies to deal with the ever-changing circumstances in the meantime. Of course, there are several things they think could be improved upon in terms of how the city and the nation as a whole prepares for and responds to future disasters. Namely, before any kind of response can even begin to occur, people higher up than the individual agency, such as Michael Bloomberg and officials in the federal government, have to “pull the trigger” faster, have to give agencies like the DOT the go-ahead, so they can actually move out and respond to the disaster in the ways just described. When they don’t pull the trigger fast enough, response is delayed and people get flustered because they don’t think anyone is doing anything to help them. But the agencies are doing all they can, and people have to understand that help is coming. People also have to listen to directives from officials. If they are told to gas up their cars ahead of time, they should do so. If they are told to evacuate an area, even if it’s just a suggestion, they should do so immediately as well. Because not doing so puts them in harm’s way. A person may live on the 18th floor of a 30-story building and flood water may not reach them up there, but help won’t be able to reach them either during and after the storm. Obviously, if they are elderly or disabled, the government should help them get out beforehand, for example by providing ambulances, but otherwise the DOT stresses that responsibility falls mainly on the people to take the initiative. And since storms like Sandy are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity over the coming years, people should get into the habit of performing these immediate responses now, especially if they are unwilling to spend large amounts of money to build up their houses against the storm or to permanently relocate.
