It’s obvious that Vladimir Putin is an opportunistic and intelligent leader. Whatever his end game may be with the dramatic path he has led Russia down, I am confident that it will pose a competent challenge to the United States and to the global financial and economic system. His actions also threaten European stability, at a time when many actually thought that Europe was heading toward a future of centralization and greater governance by the European Union and less of that by individual states. His annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, the general chaos he has forced Ukraine to deteriorate into, and the threat he poses to other former Soviet satellite states may very well set the EU back by several notches in terms of European governance (the EU’s financial integration, however, will probably continue). The United States and some of its allies have resorted to some half-assed attempt at damage control by placing economic sanctions around certain Russian individuals. This means that some high-profile and very wealthy Russian citizens have some of their assets located outside of Russia frozen and rendered useless. I highly doubt that any of that matters to most of them, since most of Russia’s lucrative markets are dominated by those very same people; they can keep living their comfortable, luxurious lives. Moreover, as long as there are even a handful of European countries that continue to depend on Russia for its natural gas and energy imports, then the rest of Europe really can’t threaten Russia in a credible way. Even Germany, the economic powerhouse of Europe, has so far refrained from criticizing Russia in a major way.
There are also two new deals on the horizon for Russia that can aid its hand in this hot mess: the natural gas deal with China and a military transaction with France. As I was reading about these two different deals, it struck me how awfully convenient it was that both of these deals were finalized around this time period, as Russia takes increasingly bolder action. Of course, each of these deals began years ago and are the results of many negotiations. Still, wouldn’t it be exceedingly clever of Putin to have timed the Crimean annexation with the finalization of both of these deals? The man was Prime Minister from 2008 to 2012, during which time both deals began. It would imply a great deal of foresight on Putin’s part if he did in fact time both of these deals and the Crimean annexation, all to strengthen his position and capabilities in the international scene. It might also mean that he has been planning this whole Crimean affair and all of its repercussions since at least that time, if not even earlier. I mean, his inauguration speech from when he entered Russian politics was about how he wanted to make the Russian state great once again, so it’s not inconceivable. Also, the French deal involves Russia purchasing two warships that its navy currently does not have. The ~$1.5 billion price tag is hefty, made heftier when maintenance and training costs are taken into account; this is made worse by the all the “capital flight” phenomenon happening now, as investors are suddenly deciding that Russia may no longer be a good place to do business. Those costs, however, are more that offset by the ~$400 billion natural gas deal that Russia just finalized with China. Putin may have already done this cost-benefit analysis in his head years ago. He’s already proven that he’s opportunistic and daring. If this hypothetical of mine is correct, he is also really perceptive and has foresight.
Of course, now I feel obligated to state how the U.S. can react to all this. Obama has shown that he is only willing to use military force as the absolute last resort, and even then, he prefers it to be multilateral action. I find this doctrine of his so frustrating. That’s because I know that this is the way the world should be headed, especially as underdeveloped countries start to become more assertive and the United States is no longer the only power that matters in a geopolitical sense; on the other hand, the U.S. is still the world’s only superpower. We could be doing more throughout the world, with the civil war in Syria being the most forefront example. Perhaps armed engagement would not the most effective course of action in Crimea, but this whole “sanctioning specific people in Russia” definitely isn’t either. I’m positive that the individuals that D.C. has targeted have far greater wealth than that which is being sanctioned. European countries really need to limit their energy trade with Russia to make a credible threat and the U.S. needs to export its own natural gas to those same European countries to fill the void.
