I have this vision of the geopolitical future. While it might be a stretch to see the current trends and extrapolate the vision I have, I think the underlying structure is present in the current “world order” that exists that can allow for that future to come to pass. Namely, I think that regions and entire continents will become unified under consolidated governments that have social and economic integration. Political integration may be more difficult to achieve, since I can easily imagine nations being very reluctant in giving up aspects of their sovereignty. However, all of this does seem to be the general trend that Europe is heading towards, as the European Union continues to pave the way toward a greater union. The European Central Bank is gaining greater regulatory power over individual economies to maintain stability. The latest EU elections were arguably the most important in the union’s history and indicates a greater consciousness among Europeans that they are part of a continent and not just a particular country. Countries all over Europe are giving up bits of their independence and heading towards a unified continent. Of course, this is all assuming that countries like Russia don’t mess all of this up with aggressive actions, in which case this whole theory could just blow up in its own face. However, assuming that not too many distracting actions take place, then Europe will probably be a much more powerful union by the end of the century. That could make the continent more peaceful (which is a relief, considering that 2 of the most violent wars were fought there).
Then there is the African Union. I don’t know too much about this organization, but tighter economic and political integration are two explicit goals in its mission statement. In addition, its member states have participated in a number of military interventions in other member states that have been hotbeds of conflict, from Darfur to Somalia. Needless to say, the AU hasn’t been very successful in many of its own goals, but as individual African states rise and even prosper, then it is conceivable that the AU itself may become more effective and grow teeth. By the end of the century then, assuming that Europe continues full speed ahead as it is doing now and that the AU is somewhat behind it, can the rest of the world ignore two incredibly large and increasingly powerful consolidated entities? Perhaps not.
Envisioning a consolidated Asian government is difficult to imagine or process. Asia is huge and extremely diverse. So is Africa, but that continent already has the AU as a launching pad in this little scenario of mine; Asia has no comparable equivalent. The closest comparisons are the regional blocs, like ASEAN. To be honest though, I’m not too concerned about an Asian consolidation; whatever happens will obviously be a huge deal as it has the potential to combine the largest countries and the largest economies. India and China will most likely play important roles and other countries might also be important players (Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam). However, there are many pathways from there. South Asia and East Asia can consolidate separately, with India and China as the leaders respectively. Or they could somehow fit together. In fact, I just read a piece by another individual who brought up the idea of a Sino-Russian union. I hadn’t thought of that given the contentious and often uncooperative history between the 2 countries, but it sounds intriguing. (This idea actually comes from a Mr. Timothy Williamson and his essay “The Rise of Regional Federalism, which I coincidentally discovered while writing this) There is also the oddball of Japan (no offense to Japan). Japan has a severe population problem and an almost total lack of immigration: these are 2 huge problems that will come to bite Japan in its ass. This will have repercussions on its economy and society. Relative to the rest of Asia, I find it difficult to place Japan in this whole scenario. That area of the world could go in any number of ways.
And of course there is the United States. As a country that pioneered federalism from the ratification of the Constitution, you would think that the US could potentially take the initiative in this kind of global movement, which really revolves around the idea of federalism among entire countries. However, things are rarely that easy. Having said that, I do think it could be in the United State’s interest to create a larger union among itself and its neighbors. Mexico is rising economically in a way that I don’t think most Americans understand. Based on the media and Republicans, most Americans are only concerned about Mexicans illegally hopping the border. However, recent data shows that fewer of those illegal immigrants are neither hopping the border nor Mexican (a growing share of illegal immigrants now come from more unstable countries further south). In fact, Mexico is growing and stabilizing by many accounts and is now providing better opportunities for its own people. If this continues, then most Mexicans soon won’t have a good reason to move north. Could the rise of a country directly to the south of the United States pose a significant geopolitical challenge to the United States? George Friedman, author of “The Next 100 Years,” believes so and I think its a credible enough scenario that could happen. In fact, Friedman believes that Mexico could pose a direct challenge to American power by the 22nd century, similar to what China is doing now. While I don’t see it going quite that far, a nice solution to this conundrum may be a union between those countries and Canada.
Lastly, just so I don’t appear negligent, Brazil could be a leader in regional/continental consolidation in South America. Although this union could also be a smaller part of the greater union to the north. The Middle East is also an interesting area that Turkey could emerge out of, if it doesn’t get sucked into the whole affair in Europe. Their Majesties in the Middle East, however, will need to find a new source of economic activity to leech off once the region’s oil is depleted and the world shifts to renewable energy. I only use derogatory language in that last statement because many monarchs of the Middle East deprive their citizens of real economic development just so they can enrich themselves off the oil boom.
The anime Code Geass takes place in an alternate timeline where the majority of the world is conquered by three superpowers. While I don’t think that could happen in the real world by force of arms, I guess it was the anime that first put the idea in my head. Then watching world affairs and also consuming other pieces of artwork, like Mass Effect, the notion of regional and continental entities began taking shape in my head. It also seems more practical to me, as larger entities can commit greater resources to doing different things. The United States alone has produced so many things in terms of technology and advances in healthcare. What would a United States of North America (working title…) be able to accomplish, I wonder. Of course, this is all just one of many ways that the world could head towards in terms of geopolitics. I see it as the next logical evolution of governing, but I could be mistaken, or some unforeseen event(s) could change the dynamics.
