With a lot of infrastructure, high population density, and building crowding, cities are especially limited in resources and space, among others. As a result, researchers doing a study in Melbourne argue that officials must be mindful of the additional infrastructure implemented. In Melbourne specifically, large desalination plants have been added to combat effects of drought. However, the construction of one of the more recent plants was poorly planned—when it finally opened in 2012, drought conditions had already receded. It was also $5 billion. So how can we better plan for these types of conditions? Researchers developed a system of water-supply analysis in which a decision tree can be generated for multiple uncertainties in the equation. After running a simulation of Melbourne over a period of 30 years, they found that 80% of the interval would not experience heavy drought onset. While the cost-effective alternative would be to build no new infrastructure, smaller modules for plants were proposed, creating infrastructure that would meet the needs of the population, but also take into account the frequency and uncertainties of drought events.
Green design can be less expensive—if we look more closely at the numbers nature presents to us #bcsfh20https://t.co/sMwmy6PS6Q
— Priyanka Algu (@priyaKa98) November 8, 2017
While this article discusses grey infrastructure, theories of data analysis and consideration of event frequency are applicable to green design. The incredible aspect of the data simulations is that they can be run hundreds of thousands of times (for Melbourne—100,000 times!) and are able to calculate the percentage of best and worst alternatives. With a number of green infrastructure options, we may be able to incorporate green infrastructure into this technique, expanding options for cities. Green infrastructure tends to be more enduring and cost-effective as well, so combining it with decision-making algorithms may prove very fortunate to cities lacking in space and funds.
