The MLB Season Preview Series continues with analysis of the National League East Division…
Before last season, the Washington Nationals (formerly the Montreal Expos) franchise had not participated in the postseason for 31 years. Perhaps more significant was the fact that the Nationals brought postseason baseball to the nation’s capital for the first time since 1933; however, they would not get past the NLDS. The Nats were leading 7-5 against the Cardinals in Game 5 at the top of the 9th inning. Nats closer Drew Storen gave up a lead-off double to Cardinal’s outfielder Carlos Beltan, but quickly recovered by inducing a Matt Holliday ground-out (advancing Beltran to 3rd) and striking out Allen Craig. There were 2 outs, a runner on third, and the Nats seemed bound for the NLCS. But it was not to be. Storen walked the next two batters, and then gave up a two-run single to Daniel Descalso which tied the game 7-7. Pete Kozma added his own single which tacked on another two runs, making it 9-7 Cardinals. It was a spectacular meltdown for the usually dominant Storen, but one that would eliminate the Nats after their lineup came up empty in the bottom of the ninth.
Playoff results aside, the Nationals are a clear favorite to once again make an October appearance, and are widely considered the best team in baseball. No matter where you look, every facet of the team looks strong. Let’s start with the rotation: Number two starter Gio Gonzalez finished 3rd in voting for the 2012 NL Cy Young Award, and is basically an ace himself. Number three starter Jordan Zimmermann finished last season with a superb 2.94 ERA in 195.2 innings last year. Number four Ross Detwiler logged a 3.40 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP; stats you might expect from a number two pitcher. Did I mention ace of the staff Stephen Strasburg? Strasburg, whose starts are known as Strasmas to Nationals’ fans, posted an insane 11.1 strikeouts/nine innings. Granted, those numbers were produced from the relatively smaller sample size of 159.1 innings pitched. This was because of the National’s strict policy of keeping Strasburg’s innings count under 160, as part of the young right hander’s rehabilitation from Tommy John surgery in 2010. This innings limit was a topic of national conversation all throughout the 2012 season. There were some who believed that Strasburg should have pitched in the postseason, but the Nationals took the conservative route with their young star who has already had Tommy John surgery. We’ll never know if running the Stras out there in October would have led the Nats to the Fall Classic. Either way, Strasburg will have no such limit this season which can only benefit the team. Over the off-season, the Nats also added free-agent Dan Haren to replace Edwin Jackson; Haren will likely slot in as the #5 starter, barring injury. Haren, when healthy, is a bonafide ace and to be a number five starter in Washington demonstrates their wealth of pitching. As good as this rotation is, if one of these five go down with an injury, there’s no clear candidate to replace him. Perhaps this is the Nat’s only weakness.
The Nat’s lineup in 2012 scored the 4th most runs of any team in baseball, and it is virtually this same lineup that returns in 2013. Expect shortstop Ian Desmond, third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, and 2012 Rookie of the Year Bryce Harper to do the heavy lifting, with notable contributions from (re-signed) first baseman Adam LaRoche. During the winter the Nats traded for lead-off man Denard Span, who bats for average, gets on-base, and plays a good center field. Outfielder Jayson Werth and catcher Wilson Ramos are returning from shoulder and knee injuries, respectively, and should add even more production if they stay healthy. Because of their great outfield depth, the Nats traded Mike Morse to the Mariners for two pitching prospects. The Nat’s bullpen, which was already pretty good, was also improved when the front office signed free-agent relief pitcher Rafael Soriano. Soriano will take over closer duties which will push up everyone up one inning – Storen will be the new setup-man and Tyler Clippard should presumably work the 7th. Add in the arms from Craig Stammen, Ryan Mattheus, and Henry Rodriguez, and it’s easy to see the ‘pen being yet another strength for this team. As manager Davey Washington said, it is “World Series or bust” for the Nats this season.
You can be sure that the Atlanta Braves will be right on the heels of the Nationals for most of the season. While I don’t believe the Braves improved all that much this offseason, they were still a 94 win team last year, good enough to make the wild card game (where this fiasco happened). The Braves were involved in one of the more hyped transactions of the off-season, acquiring outfielder Justin Upton in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks (in return, the D-backs received Martin Prado and a package of minor leaguers). The 
Braves also signed free-agent BJ Upton. These two moves were not entirely independent – BJ and Justin are brothers, and the pair will comprise 2/3 of the Braves’ outfield along with Jason Heyward. These additions were offset by key losses, however: Martin Prado (worth 5.5 Wins Above Replacement in 2012) is gone and will be replaced by Juan Francisco, who doesn’t project to get on base all too much. But perhaps more significant was the retirement of Chipper Jones, the face of the franchise for so many years. Even at 40 years old, Chipper had a productive season in 2012. With Chipper and Prado gone, the Upton brothers, Heyward, shortstop Andrelton Simmons, and first baseman Freddie Freeman will all play important roles in the Braves’ offense. This lineup may prove better than last year’s, but it will need all its players healthy and productive to be successful. The Braves’ best pitcher projects to be number two starter Kris Medlen, followed closely by the number one Tim Hudson and number 3 Mike Minor. After this trio the rotation takes a bit of a dive in Paul Maholm and Julio Teheran bringing up the rear. The Braves are hoping that their former ace Brandon Beachy — currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery — can provide a mid-season boost to the pitching staff. While this rotation isn’t as impressive as the Nationals’, the Braves bullpen should be more dominant. This is mainly because of the hard-throwing Craig Kimbrel, an absolute lights-out closer who frequently lights up the radar gun in the range of 96-97 mph. Fellow relievers Johnny Venters (on the DL for approximately two months), Eric O’Flaherty, and new addition Jordan Walden are all more than capable of bridging the gap between the starter and Kimbrel. Because of a weaker rotation, the Braves should finish behind the Nats, but are very likely to secure another wild-card berth.
Despite being the 3rd oldest team in the majors, no one expected the Philadelphia Phillies to finish with a .500 record last season. Many predicted that the pitching trio of Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Cole Hamels would lead the team to a 6th consecutive season atop the NL East. But Lee only wound up winning six of the games he started (largely a result of bad luck as he posted a superb 3.16 ERA) and Halladay battled injuries all season, contributing to an extremely atypical 4.49 ERA. Couple that with a slew of other injuries — Ryan Howard and Chase Utley both started the season on the DL — and it’s no surprise the Phillies fell from the 102 games they won in 2011. The outlook for 2013 is not much better. While Hamels and Lee should provide some stability in the rotation, Halladay remains a question mark, and his spring did not impress. Towards the back end of the rotation the Phils have Kyle Kendric and newly-signed John Lannan; both are mediocre pitchers. On the bright side, the back end of the bullpen should be solid in Jonathan Papelbon, new addition Mike Adams, and Antonio Bastardo. I’m a little less optimistic about middle relief. The Phils will likely depend on strong contributions from the relief corps to hold on to small leads, because the team doesn’t figure to score a whole lot. The lineup is fairly weak outside of Utley, Howard, and shortstop Jimmy Rollins, although Ben Revere (received in a trade with the Twins) and Domonic Brown could surprise. Catcher Carlos Ruiz (suspended for amphetamine use) should provide a boost when he returns. I wasn’t too impressed with the acquisition of the two Youngs: Delmon (who provides power against left handed pitching and not much else) and Michael (who is 36 and declining). A host of age and injury concerns coupled with strong teams in DC and Atlanta makes it likely the Phils are in for a 3rd place finish.
The New York Mets
