Just a general question. How do we think the seemingly imminent violence in Russia and Ukraine will affect New York City? It seems that Russia has annexation in mind (in fact, Putin stated outright that annexation is his goal) so will we see a mass migration of people out of the Crimean area?
Personally, I think it is likely to happen. I cannot, however, guess how many will come to New York.
I actually think that a mass migration of people out of Crimea is unlikely, since the majority of them–who are ethnic Russians–voted to join the Russian Federation and have held pro-Russian demonstrations. However, I agree with your point with respect to minority groups such as Crimean Tatars. Historically, Russia has not treated Tatars well, so they are not very happy about being annexed to Russia. The Tatars would probably be the ones to leave… perhaps to the USA, who knows?
*Update* Russia has declared Crimea as part of Russia and are already going about setting up the government there
I think that the Ukrainian Tatars that currently live in the Crimea may either migrate to the north to northern and western Ukraine or, if alternatives don’t exist, migrate elsewhere, possibly to the US. An outright war however doesn’t seem as imminent now that Ukrainian forces are beginning to withdraw from Crimea (However, there was a report that a Ukrainian officer was killed by self-defense forces very recently when Russian forces took over a Ukrainian naval base)
In terms of the ethnic tensions between the Russians and Tatars, it seems like there is a lot of misinformation surrounding the issue. Take these 2 testimonies reported by the BBC:
The information about this issue seems very muddy with both sides pointing fingers. It’s pretty hard to tell what really is going on there, and why.
Pro-Ukraine:
http://i.imgur.com/5B53Gho.png
Pro-Russian:
http://i.imgur.com/hmb4uga.png
Source?oh I see, the BBCA recent online article describes ten ways in which the Ukrainian crisis may change the world. This article is proof that politics is very complicated and hard to understand!
http://news.yahoo.com/ten-ways-ukraine-crisis-may-change-world-065811758.html
I really likes the article posted above. I find it to be a perfect distillation of the effects of the conflict over Crimea on the world. What I found most interesting was the effects the conflict had on leadership role the US plays in the world – (5) in the article. Ever since the end of the Cold War, America has emerged as the central superpower, but with no direction in which to use and thus keep that status. The so-called War on Terror has been analyzed in those terms, as a way for America to exercise its leadership role. However, the issue of terrorism overall failed to solidify US leadership, as weak decisions (such as invadng Iraq) hurt the US reputation and the emergence of East Asian “economic superstars” further undermined US dominance. However, this new conflict over Crimea has brought back to life that bipolar conflict which existed 20 years ago. America, as the “main spokesperson” against Russian Aggression brought back that leadership role which had been decaying over the years.